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Capturing the ICT Dividend
This report from Oxford Economics and AT&T shows ICT investment and productivity growth are closely linked - and European countries are lagging behind other parts of the world in both areas.
European GDP could grow by an additional €760bn (or an extra 5%) above forecasts if Europe matched total US ICT levels by 2020. This would be worth around €1,500 per person at today's prices. ICT-driven innovation would contribute approximately one-third of that growth - 1.5% of GDP or around €220bn.
Other key findings of the report include:
- As a percentage of GDP, Europe's stock of ICT capital has fallen to around two-thirds of the level in the US, the world leader, having been close to parity in 1991;
- This ICT investment gap has affected Europe's productivity growth significantly, which has averaged only half the US rate since 2000;
- Investment in ICT generates a bigger return to productivity growth than most other forms of capital investment. This so-called ""ICT dividend"" is estimated to contribute around one-third of the overall 20-25% returns on ICT investment;
- The European productivity leaders are Scandinavia and the UK. Over the past 15 years, they have seen average labour productivity growth of between 1.7% and 2% a year.
Oxford Economics is one of the world's foremost global forecasting and research consultancies.